Primetime Emmy Nominations: Who Will Win

The September 18 Emmys are still a long time away, but the nominations were announced last night. Here’s our expert analysis on who will win, who should win, and who got snubbed.

BEST DRAMA SERIES

Boardwalk Empire
Dexter
Friday Night Lights
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife
Mad Men

Who Will Win: Mad Men. This is there year to break through the Breaking Bad wall. Boardwalk has a strong chance as well, but I think the boys at SCDP are going to be happy come Emmy night.

Who Should Win: Friday Night Lights. The final season of FNL was not its best (season 1 or 4), but was still very good, and getting a symbolic win in its last season would be great to see. Don’t hold your breath though.

Who Was Snubbed: Justified. Seriously, how was this show forgotten?

BEST COMEDY SERIES
Big Bang Theory
Glee
Modern Family
The Office
30 Rock
Parks and Recreation

Who Will Win: Too Close to Call. This is a really tight category, where any of these shows could take the statue, but…

Who Should Win: Parks and Recreation. Hands down the funniest show with the best cast. The show went nuts this year, with no weak episodes, and if it doesn’t win, I’ll go on a hunger strike (or probably just be mad for a few days).

Who Was Snubbed: Community. The show had a few brilliant episodes this season, including a few that were light on the wacky humor that helped build the shows fanbase, but heavy on tremendously done storytelling. A shame it didn’t get a nod.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR

Timothy Olyphant, Justified
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Hugh Laurie, House

Who Will Win: Jon Hamm. It’s his year to hold the statue before Cranston comes back. And honestly, if you saw the episode “The Suitcase,” you’ll have no problem agreeing with me.

Who Should Win: Kyle Chandler. Like FNL in the Drama Series category, this would be symbolic, though Chandler was pitch perfect in his final season as Coach Taylor, and deserves it outright.

Who Was Snubbed: This category is surprisingly tight. Not much you can argue here.

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Kathy Bates, Harry’s Law
Mariska Hargitay, SVU
Mirelle Enos, The Killing
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Who Will Win: Elisabeth Moss. If you saw Hamm in “The Suitcase,” you know Moss deserves an Emmy for her work too. She’s past due, and this will be her year.

Who Should Win: Connie Britton. If I had a vote, I’d vote for Moss, but Britton spent five years doing phenomenal work as Tammy Taylor, and it’s sad to see her come away from it all empty handed.

Who Was Snubbed: January Jones, Mad Men. I’m not the biggest January Jones fan, and Betty didn’t have much to do this season, but when she was on screen, the whole mood of the scene changed. Betty was fascinating to watch this year, thanks in large part to Jones.

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Laura Linney, The Big C
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope
Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation

Who Will Win: Amy Poehler. Tina Fey might surprise, but I think this is Poehler’s year. She was very good all season, and I think that will be hard to ignore.

Who Should Win: Amy Poehler. Seriously. She was great.

Who Was Snubbed: Alison Brie, Community. Annie is one of the sweeter, more fun characters on TV right now. Just watch her try and be someone else in the bar night episode, you’ll see what I mean.

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Steve Carell, The Office
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
Louie C.K., Louie

Who Will Win: Steve Carell. He hasn’t won an Emmy yet for playing his most iconic roll, and this is the last chance. Voters won’t forget that.

Who Should Win: Louie C.K. It seems like an odd nomination, but it’s sort of Louie‘s consolation prize.

Who Was Snubbed: Joel McHale, Community. The longer he’s on Community, the better he’s getting.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY
Chris Colfer, Glee
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O’Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men

Who Will Win: Ty Burrell. It’s gotta be someone from Modern Family, and it might as well be the most consistently funny.

Who Should Win: If not Burrell, Eric Stonestreet. After Phil, Cam is among the funniest characters on TV.

Who Was Snubbed: A long list here, including Danny Pudi, Aziz Ansari, Nick Offerman, Rainn Wilson, all of whom did fantastic work this season on shows that were not Modern Family.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Walton Goggins, Justified
John Slattery, Mad Men
Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age

Who Will Win: John Slattery. Like I said, it’s Mad Men’s year to break through the Breaking Bad wall.

Who Should Win: Walter Goggins or Peter Dinklage. Both were fantastic, but will certainly be forgotten come voting time.

Who Was Snubbed: Not to bring in more Mad Men, but the more the show has gone on the more I like Vincent Kartheiser as Pete, who has yet to get a nomination.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY
Jane Lynch, Glee
Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock

Who Will Win: Kristen Wiig. This will be her anointment into stardom, much the same way Tina Fey (and hopefully Amy Pohler) got her first Emmy en route to a successful movie career. She deserves it too.

Who Should Win: Julie Bowen. Claire isn’t a likable character without her.

Who Was Snubbed: Rashida Jones, Parks and Recreation. Poor, beautiful Anne.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Margo Martindale, Justified
Michelle Forbes, The Killing
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

Who Will Win: Christina Hendricks. This is a really tight category full of deserving actresses, but she’ll have the Mad Men luck behind her.

Who Should Win: Margo Martindale. If you’ve watched Justified, you know why.

Who Was Snubbed: No one here. Fantastic group of actresses.

OUTSTANDING MINISERIES OR MOVIE
Cinema Verite
Downton Abbey
The Kennedys
Mildred Pierce
The Pillars of the Earth
Too Big to Fail

BEST VARIETY SERIES
The Colbert Report
Conan
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon
Real Time with Bill Maher
Saturday Night Live

OUTSTANDING REALITY PROGRAM
Antiques Roadshow
Undercover Boss

OUTSTANDING REALITY COMPETITION
The Amazing Race
American Idol
So You Think You Can Dance
Top Chef